Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 3.979072 4.338752 4.736892 5.214457 5.777442 6.427460 7.246037
2025-01-05 3.433490 3.886412 4.421499 5.113368 6.005066 7.147812 8.782638
2025-01-12 3.092887 3.579980 4.178810 4.991244 6.103447 7.640352 10.070946
2025-01-19 2.818681 3.313059 3.937952 4.815577 6.072406 7.914864 11.084208
2025-01-26 2.703741 3.230447 3.916479 4.917690 6.427730 8.804580 13.361478
2025-02-02 2.645127 3.211656 3.971920 5.125963 6.965075 10.100293 16.962819
2025-02-09 2.569487 3.161056 3.974756 5.251837 7.388164 11.310302 21.139856
2025-02-16 2.451630 3.042418 3.868565 5.195061 7.490969 11.942085 24.375004
2025-02-23 2.352727 2.943056 3.781235 5.156127 7.614967 12.648146 28.453344
2025-03-02 2.256806 2.841682 3.682679 5.087229 7.670766 13.221418 32.738831
2025-03-09 2.173035 2.752836 3.596368 5.029153 7.736568 13.838837 38.071228
2025-03-16 2.105687 2.684067 3.535713 5.007891 7.870230 14.669653 45.934248
2025-03-23 2.062986 2.650885 3.530292 5.086335 8.231442 16.281924 63.282825
2025-03-30 1.984894 2.561192 3.430347 4.987292 8.200691 16.777813 75.195982
2025-04-06 1.909097 2.471564 3.325434 4.870211 8.113270 17.078387 87.553730
2025-04-13 1.827925 2.370685 3.197539 4.701459 7.888195 16.870842 93.862566
2025-04-20 1.805737 2.358495 3.212481 4.799567 8.292860 18.987551 161.471264
2025-04-27 1.803656 2.376692 3.277826 4.999506 8.984747 22.702971 539.841879
2025-05-04 1.786557 2.370449 3.301529 5.120236 9.508864 26.281471 39005.585765
2025-05-11 1.740547 2.316667 3.241224 5.065790 9.556015 27.637482 NaN
2025-05-18 1.700047 2.270161 3.191181 5.028444 9.645693 29.346345 NaN
2025-05-25 1.657154 2.218363 3.129586 4.962339 9.643663 30.568445 NaN
2025-06-01 1.618159 2.171576 3.074748 4.906597 9.664486 32.010735 NaN